13.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 14.1 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 12.8
+0.8 opponent leak — they concede 196.6/game vs a 185.9 league average
vs them: averages 15.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▲projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 20: 0 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 22: 0 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o14.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.3°C☂ 0.6mm (63%)🌬 14.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Samuelvs all playersStatSGI concedePer game
120.9
74
Run Metresfavorable
100
1914.7
Samuel 120.9/game
SGI concedes 1914.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.5
52
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
19
30.6
Samuel 1.5/game
SGI concedes 30.6/game · league avg 32.8
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
5.8
21
Tacklesneutral
50
345.9
Samuel 5.8/game
SGI concedes 345.9/game · league avg 344.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
71
Triesfavorable
94
5.1
Samuel 0.3/game
SGI concedes 5.1/game · league avg 4.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
62
Try Assistsneutral
69
3.9
Samuel 0.1/game
SGI concedes 3.9/game · league avg 3.5
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
64
Line Breaksneutral
75
6.0
Samuel 0.3/game
SGI concedes 6.0/game · league avg 5.1
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
45
Offloadsunfavorable
13
8.5
Samuel 0.3/game
SGI concedes 8.5/game · league avg 9.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
33.9
64
Post Contact Metresneutral
88
598.3
Samuel 33.9/game
SGI concedes 598.3/game · league avg 544.2
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresfavorable
Samuel120.9
74
SGI1914.7
100
Samuel 120.9/game
SGI concedes 1914.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Samuel1.5
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Runs
196.6per game · league avg 185.9
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Runs
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else13.4(32)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)14.0(1)+0.6
Dry games13.4(31)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SGI · Runs
Avg diff
+0.5
Avg diff %
+2%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09CROWilliam Kennedy15.415-3%
08-09CROJesse Ramien13.910-28%
08-09CROJesse Colquhoun12.410-19%
08-09CROAddin Fonua-Blake12.99-30%
07-31DOLKulikefu Finefeuiaki15.018+20%
07-26GLDTino Fa'asuamaleaui15.518+16%
07-26GLDBeau Fermor14.417+18%
07-26GLDDean Ieremia15.822+39%
Similar = season average within ±2.1 of Samuel's. Computed from this app's own records.