• 96.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 96.9 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 96.8
• −10.5 opponent leak — they concede 1504.1/game vs a 1687.8 league average
• −0.9 at this ground — averages 96 there (4 gm)
• vs them: averages 61.7 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 16: 168 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.