34.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 37.4 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 29.3
+1.0 opponent leak — they concede 354.8/game vs a 344.9 league average
−4.8 at this ground — averages 29.4 there (5 gm)
vs them: averages 40.2 over 10 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲venue ▼projection ▼
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 23: 0 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o37.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.3°C☂ 0.6mm (63%)🌬 14.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Damienvs all playersStatCRO concedePer game
54.4
31
Run Metresunfavorable
0
1511.1
Damien 54.4/game
CRO concedes 1511.1/game · league avg 1686.6
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.4
51
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
6
29.1
Damien 1.4/game
CRO concedes 29.1/game · league avg 32.8
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
37.4
95
Tacklesfavorable
88
354.8
Damien 37.4/game
CRO concedes 354.8/game · league avg 344.9
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
39
Triesunfavorable
19
3.7
Damien 0.1/game
CRO concedes 3.7/game · league avg 4.2
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
64
Try Assistsunfavorable
31
3.3
Damien 0.1/game
CRO concedes 3.3/game · league avg 3.5
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
23
Line Breaksunfavorable
38
4.7
Damien 0.1/game
CRO concedes 4.7/game · league avg 5.1
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
29
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Damien 0.1/game
CRO concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
13.3
26
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
0
469.6
Damien 13.3/game
CRO concedes 469.6/game · league avg 544.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Damien54.4
31
CRO1511.1
0
Damien 54.4/game
CRO concedes 1511.1/game · league avg 1686.6
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Damien1.4
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CRO concede · Tackles
354.8per game · league avg 344.9
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackles
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium29.4(5)-13.1
Everywhere else42.5(132)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)46.6(12)+5.0
Dry games41.6(125)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs CRO · Tackles
Avg diff
+2.4
Avg diff %
+7%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09SGIDylan Egan41.939-7%
07-26MANJake Simpkin37.940+6%
07-26MANJake Trbojevic33.431-7%
07-17NEWDylan Lucas37.541+9%
07-11DOLMorgan Knowles34.130-12%
07-11DOLConnelly Lemuelu33.939+15%
07-11DOLKulikefu Finefeuiaki36.252+44%
07-11DOLJeremy Marshall-King37.339+4%
Similar = season average within ±5.6 of Damien's. Computed from this app's own records.