162.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 157.9 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 169.7
−0.8 opponent leak — they concede 1679.1/game vs a 1687.8 league average
−11.2 wet forecast — averages 151.4 in the wet (7 gm)
vs them: averages 140.7 over 6 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o157.5
Game conditionsHBF Park · PerthRound 23 · 2026-08-08 13:00☁ 11°C☂ 1.9mm (100%)🌬 15.4 km/hWet ball risk
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Christianvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game
157.9
92
Run Metresneutral
50
1679.1
Christian 157.9/game
MEL concedes 1679.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.7
81
Tackle Breaksneutral
50
32.8
Christian 2.7/game
MEL concedes 32.8/game · league avg 32.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
3.1
8
Tacklesunfavorable
25
336.7
Christian 3.1/game
MEL concedes 336.7/game · league avg 344.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
75
Triesneutral
56
4.5
Christian 0.3/game
MEL concedes 4.5/game · league avg 4.2
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
63
3.6
Christian 0.0/game
MEL concedes 3.6/game · league avg 3.5
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
70
Line Breaksfavorable
88
6.4
Christian 0.3/game
MEL concedes 6.4/game · league avg 5.1
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsneutral
50
9.8
Christian 0.0/game
MEL concedes 9.8/game · league avg 9.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
63.7
98
Post Contact Metresfavorable
69
563.0
Christian 63.7/game
MEL concedes 563.0/game · league avg 544.6
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Christian157.9
92
MEL1679.1
50
Christian 157.9/game
MEL concedes 1679.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Christian2.7
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MEL concede · Run Metres
1679.1per game · league avg 1687.8
#9 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Run Metres
At HBF Park—(0)
Everywhere else138.0(65)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)151.4(7)+15.0
Dry games136.4(58)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs MEL · Run Metres
Avg diff
-18.8
Avg diff %
-12%
Hit rate
0/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08MANHaumole Olakau'atu174.5166-5%
08-08MANJason Saab135.2103-24%
08-08MANTolutau Koula173.5162-7%
08-08MANLehi Hopoate166.1138-17%
07-31CBYJacob Kiraz179.2152-15%
07-31CBYEnari Tuala154.41540%
07-24SOUKeaon Koloamatangi170.4143-16%
07-24SOUCampbell Graham152.4137-10%
Similar = season average within ±23.7 of Christian's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown96.5