10.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 10.4 (11 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 10.1
+0.2 opponent leak — they concede 352.1/game vs a 344.7 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 7.7 over 6 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 5: 24 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o10.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.9°C☂ 0.4mm (83%)🌬 16.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Mosesvs all playersStatCRO concedePer game
107.3
66
Run Metresunfavorable
0
1504.1
Moses 107.3/game
CRO concedes 1504.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.6
80
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
6
28.6
Moses 2.6/game
CRO concedes 28.6/game · league avg 32.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
10.4
32
Tacklesneutral
81
352.1
Moses 10.4/game
CRO concedes 352.1/game · league avg 344.7
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
59
Triesunfavorable
19
3.7
Moses 0.2/game
CRO concedes 3.7/game · league avg 4.2
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
78
Try Assistsunfavorable
31
3.3
Moses 0.3/game
CRO concedes 3.3/game · league avg 3.5
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
38
Line Breaksunfavorable
31
4.5
Moses 0.1/game
CRO concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
58
Offloadsunfavorable
13
8.5
Moses 0.5/game
CRO concedes 8.5/game · league avg 9.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
42.6
80
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
0
466.4
Moses 42.6/game
CRO concedes 466.4/game · league avg 544.6
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Moses107.3
66
CRO1504.1
0
Moses 107.3/game
CRO concedes 1504.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Moses2.6
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CRO concede · Tackles
352.1per game · league avg 344.7
#4 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackles
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium24.0(1)+14.9
Everywhere else9.1(110)
Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)8.8(10)-0.5
Dry games9.3(101)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs CRO · Tackles
Avg diff
+1.8
Avg diff %
+18%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-02SOULiam Le Blanc10.118+78%
07-26MANSimione Laiafi10.817+58%
07-17NEWBrodie Jones11.09-18%
07-04BRIJaiyden Hunt11.20-100%
07-04BRIGehamat Shibasaki9.07-22%
07-04BRIThomas Duffy10.318+74%
06-21SYDBilly Smith11.118+62%
06-13WARMakaia Tafua11.012+9%
Similar = season average within ±1.6 of Moses's. Computed from this app's own records.