33.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 31.2 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 37.5
−4.6 opponent leak — they concede 469.6/game vs a 544.2 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 30.0 over 6 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▼projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o31.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.3°C☂ 0.6mm (63%)🌬 14.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Mathewvs all playersStatCRO concedePer game
90.9
56
Run Metresunfavorable
0
1511.1
Mathew 90.9/game
CRO concedes 1511.1/game · league avg 1686.6
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.5
78
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
6
29.1
Mathew 2.5/game
CRO concedes 29.1/game · league avg 32.8
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
6.7
24
Tacklesneutral
88
354.8
Mathew 6.7/game
CRO concedes 354.8/game · league avg 344.9
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
60
Triesunfavorable
19
3.7
Mathew 0.2/game
CRO concedes 3.7/game · league avg 4.2
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
31
3.3
Mathew 0.0/game
CRO concedes 3.3/game · league avg 3.5
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
70
Line Breaksneutral
38
4.7
Mathew 0.3/game
CRO concedes 4.7/game · league avg 5.1
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
54
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Mathew 0.4/game
CRO concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
31.2
59
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
0
469.6
Mathew 31.2/game
CRO concedes 469.6/game · league avg 544.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Mathew90.9
56
CRO1511.1
0
Mathew 90.9/game
CRO concedes 1511.1/game · league avg 1686.6
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Mathew2.5
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CRO concede · Post Contact Metres
469.6per game · league avg 544.2
#17 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium30.3(3)-4.0
Everywhere else34.3(84)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)44.4(7)+11.2
Dry games33.3(80)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs CRO · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
-2.7
Avg diff %
-7%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09SGIHamish Stewart32.534+5%
08-09SGIDylan Egan31.333+5%
08-02SOUJack Wighton32.917-48%
08-02SOUJye Gray27.629+5%
07-26MANKobe Hetherington29.326-11%
07-26MANNathan Brown28.835+22%
07-17NEWDane Gagai34.520-42%
07-17NEWKalyn Ponga33.635+4%
Similar = season average within ±4.7 of Mathew's. Computed from this app's own records.