14.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 14.9 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 13.7
+0.4 opponent leak — they concede 354.8/game vs a 344.9 league average
−5.4 at this ground — averages 9 there (5 gm)
vs them: averages 17.0 over 8 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ·opponent ▲venue ▼projection ▼
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o14.5
Game conditionsSt George Venues Jubilee Stadium · SydneyRound 23 · 2026-08-09 16:05☁ 15.3°C☂ 0.6mm (63%)🌬 14.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Joshvs all playersStatCRO concedePer game
47.1
25
Run Metresunfavorable
0
1511.1
Josh 47.1/game
CRO concedes 1511.1/game · league avg 1686.6
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
30
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
6
29.1
Josh 0.8/game
CRO concedes 29.1/game · league avg 32.8
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
14.9
46
Tacklesneutral
88
354.8
Josh 14.9/game
CRO concedes 354.8/game · league avg 344.9
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
19
3.7
Josh 0.0/game
CRO concedes 3.7/game · league avg 4.2
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
31
3.3
Josh 0.0/game
CRO concedes 3.3/game · league avg 3.5
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
23
Line Breaksunfavorable
38
4.7
Josh 0.1/game
CRO concedes 4.7/game · league avg 5.1
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
61
Offloadsunfavorable
19
8.6
Josh 0.5/game
CRO concedes 8.6/game · league avg 9.7
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
17.9
35
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
0
469.6
Josh 17.9/game
CRO concedes 469.6/game · league avg 544.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Josh47.1
25
CRO1511.1
0
Josh 47.1/game
CRO concedes 1511.1/game · league avg 1686.6
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Josh0.8
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CRO concede · Tackles
354.8per game · league avg 344.9
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackles
At St George Venues Jubilee Stadium9.0(5)-8.8
Everywhere else17.8(107)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)18.1(7)+0.8
Dry games17.4(105)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs CRO · Tackles
Avg diff
+5.7
Avg diff %
+41%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09SGIJacob Halangahu14.326+82%
08-02SOUAshton Ward14.314-2%
07-26MANJoey Walsh13.830+118%
07-17NEWSandon Smith15.50-100%
07-17NEWDane Gagai14.912-19%
07-17NEWFrancis Manuleleua13.837+169%
07-17NEWBradman Best13.814+2%
07-17NEWFletcher Sharpe16.229+79%
Similar = season average within ±2.2 of Josh's. Computed from this app's own records.