42.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 41.5 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 44.8
+3.9 opponent leak — they concede 594.5/game vs a 544.6 league average
−2.4 at this ground — averages 40.4 there (37 gm)
vs them: averages 39.5 over 8 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
BRI concede · Post Contact Metres
594.5per game · league avg 544.6
#4 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At Suncorp Stadium40.4(37)+7.9
Everywhere else32.5(67)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)32.4(8)-3.2
Dry games35.6(96)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs BRI · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+12.9
Avg diff %
+32%
Hit rate
6/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08DOLHamiso Tabuai-Fidow39.642+6%
08-08DOLTom Gilbert35.526-27%
08-01NEWTyson Frizell35.445+27%
08-01NEWBradman Best47.377+63%
08-01NEWDominic Young44.1440%
08-01NEWTrey Mooney35.778+118%
07-25NQLHeilum Luki38.640+4%
07-25NQLJeremiah Nanai41.969+65%
Similar = season average within ±6.2 of Connelly's. Computed from this app's own records.