12.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 11.6 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 12.6
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 186.4/game vs a 185.9 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 6.5 over 6 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 5: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
← the price your bookie is offering
Splits · o11.5
Game conditions4 Pines Park · SydneyRound 24 · 2026-08-14 18:00☁ 13.1°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 6.7 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Connellyvs all playersStatMAN concedePer game
108.2
67
Run Metresunfavorable
31
1613.3
Connelly 108.2/game
MAN concedes 1613.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.0
67
Tackle Breaksneutral
38
31.9
Connelly 2.0/game
MAN concedes 31.9/game · league avg 32.7
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
33.9
90
Tacklesneutral
56
347.8
Connelly 33.9/game
MAN concedes 347.8/game · league avg 344.7
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
73
Triesunfavorable
25
3.8
Connelly 0.3/game
MAN concedes 3.8/game · league avg 4.2
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
70
Try Assistsunfavorable
25
3.1
Connelly 0.2/game
MAN concedes 3.1/game · league avg 3.5
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
79
Line Breaksunfavorable
19
4.5
Connelly 0.5/game
MAN concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
74
Offloadsfavorable
100
11.6
Connelly 0.7/game
MAN concedes 11.6/game · league avg 9.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
41.5
78
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
31
514.9
Connelly 41.5/game
MAN concedes 514.9/game · league avg 544.6
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Connelly108.2
67
MAN1613.3
31
Connelly 108.2/game
MAN concedes 1613.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Connelly2.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MAN concede · Runs
186.4per game · league avg 185.9
#7 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Runs
At 4 Pines Park8.3(3)-1.1
Everywhere else9.4(101)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)10.0(8)+0.7
Dry games9.3(96)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs MAN · Runs
Avg diff
-0.3
Avg diff %
-1%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08MELCooper Clarke10.214+37%
08-08MELCameron Munster12.17-42%
08-08MELJosh King11.413+14%
08-08MELTrent Loiero11.78-31%
08-08MELNick Meaney11.98-33%
08-08MELMoses Leo12.011-8%
07-26CROTeig Wilton10.516+52%
07-26CROAddin Fonua-Blake13.214+6%
Similar = season average within ±1.7 of Connelly's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown11.5