11.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 11.5 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 11.2
+0.5 opponent leak — they concede 194.8/game vs a 185.9 league average
−0.1 at this ground — averages 11.3 there (24 gm)
vs them: averages 12.1 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲venue ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
BRI concede · Runs
194.8per game · league avg 185.9
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Runs
At Suncorp Stadium11.3(24)+0.5
Everywhere else10.8(51)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)10.9(9)-0.1
Dry games11.0(66)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs BRI · Runs
Avg diff
+2.8
Avg diff %
+24%
Hit rate
6/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08DOLConnelly Lemuelu11.614+21%
08-01NEWMat Croker9.89-8%
08-01NEWTrey Mooney12.319+55%
08-01NEWJermaine McEwen11.812+1%
08-01NEWSandon Smith10.320+94%
08-01NEWFletcher Sharpe12.314+14%
08-01NEWBradman Best13.117+30%
07-25NQLHeilum Luki10.89-16%
Similar = season average within ±1.7 of Tom's. Computed from this app's own records.