• 14.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 14.0 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 14.2
• +0.7 opponent leak — they concede 194.8/game vs a 185.9 league average
• −2.2 at this ground — averages 11.9 there (28 gm)
• vs them: averages 14.4 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.