• 49.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 49.0 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 51.2
• −2.7 opponent leak — they concede 514.9/game vs a 544.2 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 33.2 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 9: 12 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.