73.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 76.1 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 69.7
+5.4 opponent leak — they concede 1810.8/game vs a 1686.6 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 53.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 8: 164 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PAR concede · Run Metres
1810.8per game · league avg 1686.6
#4 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Run Metres
At Allianz Stadium46.3(3)-32.3
Everywhere else78.6(40)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)78.5(4)+2.3
Dry games76.2(39)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PAR · Run Metres
Avg diff
-23.0
Avg diff %
-28%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08SOUCody Walker66.494+42%
08-08SOUSean Keppie71.097+37%
08-02WSTHeath Mason76.80-100%
08-02WSTSamuela Fainu85.669-19%
08-02WSTPatrick Herbert83.578-7%
08-02WSTJarome Luai76.169-9%
08-02WSTSione Fainu77.525-68%
08-02WSTStarford To'a79.40-100%
Similar = season average within ±11.4 of Lachlan's. Computed from this app's own records.