33.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 31.4 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 35.3
+2.0 opponent leak — they concede 365.4/game vs a 344.9 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 30.2 over 6 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 18: 50 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · 31.5
Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Keaonvs all playersStatWAR concedePer game
170.4
96
Run Metresunfavorable
13
1543.0
Keaon 170.4/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1686.6
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.0
65
Tackle Breaksneutral
81
34.4
Keaon 2.0/game
WAR concedes 34.4/game · league avg 32.8
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
31.4
86
Tacklesfavorable
94
365.4
Keaon 31.4/game
WAR concedes 365.4/game · league avg 344.9
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
26
Triesunfavorable
6
2.9
Keaon 0.1/game
WAR concedes 2.9/game · league avg 4.2
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
39
Try Assistsunfavorable
6
2.5
Keaon 0.1/game
WAR concedes 2.5/game · league avg 3.5
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
39
Line Breaksneutral
38
4.7
Keaon 0.1/game
WAR concedes 4.7/game · league avg 5.1
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
72
Offloadsfavorable
69
10.2
Keaon 0.7/game
WAR concedes 10.2/game · league avg 9.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
60.8
97
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
13
494.6
Keaon 60.8/game
WAR concedes 494.6/game · league avg 544.2
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Keaon170.4
96
WAR1543.0
13
Keaon 170.4/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1686.6
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Keaon2.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Tackles
365.4per game · league avg 344.9
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackles
At Go Media Stadium28.0(1)-2.6
Everywhere else30.6(131)
Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)30.9(15)+0.3
Dry games30.5(117)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs WAR · Tackles
Avg diff
+8.3
Avg diff %
+27%
Hit rate
6/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENLindsay Smith30.050+67%
08-07PENFreddy Lussick28.756+95%
08-07PENLiam Henry33.547+40%
08-07PENIsaiah Papali'i33.438+14%
08-01GLDArama Hau28.320-29%
08-01GLDMoeaki Fotuaika28.632+12%
08-01GLDTino Fa'asuamaleaui31.528-11%
08-01GLDBeau Fermor34.644+27%
Similar = season average within ±4.7 of Keaon's. Computed from this app's own records.