• 10.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 9.1 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 11.5
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 347.8/game vs a 344.7 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• +2.8 wet forecast — averages 12.9 in the wet (8 gm)
• vs them: averages 16.0 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.