8.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 8.2 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 8.2
+0.7 opponent leak — they concede 594.4/game vs a 545.7 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 7.7 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 6: 26 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PAR concede · Post Contact Metres
594.4per game · league avg 545.7
#5 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At Allianz Stadium9.3(3)+1.6
Everywhere else7.7(54)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)7.5(8)-0.3
Dry games7.8(49)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PAR · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+5.3
Avg diff %
+62%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-11SYDDaly Cherry-Evans9.50-100%
07-11SYDBenaiah Ioelu6.85-26%
07-05MANJake Simpkin8.323+177%
07-05MANJamal Fogarty8.55-41%
06-25SOUAshton Ward8.85-43%
06-13CBRVena Patuki-Case8.333+300%
06-13CBREthan Sanders9.627+181%
06-13CBROwen Pattie8.913+46%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Peter's. Computed from this app's own records.