• 36.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 39.8 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 31.2
• −3.0 opponent leak — they concede 1550.3/game vs a 1687.8 league average
• +15.3 at this ground — averages 51.6 there (12 gm)
• vs them: averages 33.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 7: 116 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.