• 89.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 88.7 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 89.8
• −1.8 opponent leak — they concede 1652.5/game vs a 1686.6 league average
• −0.8 at this ground — averages 88.4 there (46 gm)
• vs them: averages 56.8 over 5 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 21: 165 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.