7.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 7.3 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 6.9
+0.8 opponent leak — they concede 605.3/game vs a 544.2 league average
−0.1 at this ground — averages 7 there (9 gm)
vs them: averages 4.4 over 10 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · 7.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Adamvs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
47.9
26
Run Metresneutral
94
1851.3
Adam 47.9/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
37
Tackle Breaksneutral
88
34.8
Adam 0.9/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.8
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
15.1
46
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Adam 15.1/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.9
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
64
Triesneutral
75
4.8
Adam 0.2/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
83
Try Assistsfavorable
75
4.0
Adam 0.4/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
32
Line Breaksneutral
63
5.2
Adam 0.1/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
27
Offloadsneutral
88
11.2
Adam 0.1/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
7.3
14
Post Contact Metresneutral
94
605.3
Adam 7.3/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Adam47.9
26
GLD1851.3
94
Adam 47.9/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Adam0.9
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Post Contact Metres
605.3per game · league avg 544.2
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At Cbus Super Stadium7.0(9)+1.8
Everywhere else5.2(108)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)5.0(9)-0.4
Dry games5.4(108)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs GLD · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
-1.3
Avg diff %
-20%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-26SGIKyle Flanagan6.16-2%
07-19MANJake Simpkin8.14-50%
07-19MANJackson Shereb8.716+85%
07-19MANJamal Fogarty8.74-54%
07-19MANAaron Schoupp6.70-100%
07-12MELTrent Toelau5.90-100%
06-26CBYAlekolasimi Jones7.40-100%
06-26CBYLipoi Hopoi7.018+157%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Adam's. Computed from this app's own records.