1.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.7 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.8
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 190.9/game vs a 185.9 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 4.1 over 11 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 25: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o1.5
Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 25 · 2026-08-20 19:50☁ 14.9°C☂ 0mm (32%)🌬 13.2 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Mitchvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game
12.7
5
Run Metresneutral
50
1679.1
Mitch 12.7/game
MEL concedes 1679.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
7
Tackle Breaksneutral
50
32.8
Mitch 0.2/game
MEL concedes 32.8/game · league avg 32.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
31.8
88
Tacklesunfavorable
25
336.7
Mitch 31.8/game
MEL concedes 336.7/game · league avg 344.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesneutral
56
4.5
Mitch 0.0/game
MEL concedes 4.5/game · league avg 4.2
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
82
Try Assistsfavorable
63
3.6
Mitch 0.3/game
MEL concedes 3.6/game · league avg 3.5
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksneutral
88
6.4
Mitch 0.0/game
MEL concedes 6.4/game · league avg 5.1
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsneutral
50
9.8
Mitch 0.0/game
MEL concedes 9.8/game · league avg 9.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.8
6
Post Contact Metresneutral
69
563.0
Mitch 2.8/game
MEL concedes 563.0/game · league avg 544.6
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Mitch12.7
5
MEL1679.1
50
Mitch 12.7/game
MEL concedes 1679.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Mitch0.2
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MEL concede · Runs
190.9per game · league avg 185.9
#5 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Runs
At AAMI Park3.0(1)-0.8
Everywhere else3.8(117)
Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)4.5(8)+0.8
Dry games3.7(110)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs MEL · Runs
Avg diff
-0.9
Avg diff %
-45%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08MANNicholas Lenaz0.30-100%
08-08MANBrandon Wakeham2.55+103%
08-08MANJackson Shereb2.80-100%
08-08MANJake Simpkin3.01-66%
08-08MANFletcher Baker2.55+100%
07-31CBYBailey Hayward2.10-100%
07-31CBYAlekolasimi Jones2.10-100%
07-31CBYSean O'Sullivan2.80-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Mitch's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry12.5