• 1.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.7 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.8
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 180.6/game vs a 185.9 league average
• +2.0 at this ground — averages 3.7 there (15 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.6 over 11 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 25: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.