35.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 35.0 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 34.9
+0.5 opponent leak — they concede 349.4/game vs a 344.7 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 38.1 over 10 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 6: 3 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SYD concede · Tackles
349.4per game · league avg 344.7
#7 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Tackles
At Allianz Stadium27.5(2)-14.6
Everywhere else42.1(135)
Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)43.3(10)+1.5
Dry games41.8(127)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SYD · Tackles
Avg diff
-1.8
Avg diff %
-4%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07CBYMax King33.626-23%
08-07CBYJaeman Salmon32.433+2%
08-07CBYJacob Preston34.744+27%
08-07CBYLeo Thompson35.945+25%
08-07CBYBailey Hayward39.038-2%
07-30NQLHeilum Luki40.245+12%
07-30NQLReuben Cotter38.734-12%
07-24NEWDylan Lucas37.513-65%
Similar = season average within ±5.3 of Reed's. Computed from this app's own records.