27.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 27.7 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 26.1
+0.9 opponent leak — they concede 563/game vs a 544.6 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 26.0 over 9 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 0 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o27.5
Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 25 · 2026-08-20 19:50☁ 14.9°C☂ 0mm (32%)🌬 13.2 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Lukevs all playersStatMEL concedePer game
72.5
43
Run Metresneutral
50
1679.1
Luke 72.5/game
MEL concedes 1679.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.6
56
Tackle Breaksneutral
50
32.8
Luke 1.6/game
MEL concedes 32.8/game · league avg 32.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
21.3
64
Tacklesunfavorable
25
336.7
Luke 21.3/game
MEL concedes 336.7/game · league avg 344.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
60
Triesneutral
56
4.5
Luke 0.2/game
MEL concedes 4.5/game · league avg 4.2
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
48
Try Assistsneutral
63
3.6
Luke 0.1/game
MEL concedes 3.6/game · league avg 3.5
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
63
Line Breaksneutral
88
6.4
Luke 0.3/game
MEL concedes 6.4/game · league avg 5.1
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
34
Offloadsneutral
50
9.8
Luke 0.2/game
MEL concedes 9.8/game · league avg 9.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
27.7
52
Post Contact Metresneutral
69
563.0
Luke 27.7/game
MEL concedes 563.0/game · league avg 544.6
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Luke72.5
43
MEL1679.1
50
Luke 72.5/game
MEL concedes 1679.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Luke1.6
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MEL concede · Post Contact Metres
563.0per game · league avg 544.6
#6 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At AAMI Park27.0(2)-0.3
Everywhere else27.3(111)
Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)17.7(3)-9.9
Dry games27.5(110)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs MEL · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
-2.1
Avg diff %
-9%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08MANNathan Brown28.827-6%
07-31CBYLachlan Galvin27.029+8%
07-31CBYHarry Hayes23.65-79%
07-24SOUJye Gray27.60-100%
07-24SOUAlex Johnston26.234+30%
07-24SOULachlan Hubner26.023-12%
07-17SYDVictor Radley30.441+35%
07-17SYDHugo Savala25.339+54%
Similar = season average within ±4.2 of Luke's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry38.5