27.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 27.7 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 26.1
−2.5 opponent leak — they concede 494.6/game vs a 544.2 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 26.3 over 9 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ·opponent ▼projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 0 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
← the price your bookie is offering
Splits · o27.5
Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Lukevs all playersStatWAR concedePer game
72.5
43
Run Metresunfavorable
13
1543.0
Luke 72.5/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1686.6
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.6
56
Tackle Breaksneutral
81
34.4
Luke 1.6/game
WAR concedes 34.4/game · league avg 32.8
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
21.3
64
Tacklesneutral
94
365.4
Luke 21.3/game
WAR concedes 365.4/game · league avg 344.9
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
60
Triesunfavorable
6
2.9
Luke 0.2/game
WAR concedes 2.9/game · league avg 4.2
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
49
Try Assistsunfavorable
6
2.5
Luke 0.1/game
WAR concedes 2.5/game · league avg 3.5
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
63
Line Breaksneutral
38
4.7
Luke 0.3/game
WAR concedes 4.7/game · league avg 5.1
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
34
Offloadsneutral
69
10.2
Luke 0.2/game
WAR concedes 10.2/game · league avg 9.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
27.7
52
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
13
494.6
Luke 27.7/game
WAR concedes 494.6/game · league avg 544.2
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Luke72.5
43
WAR1543.0
13
Luke 72.5/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1686.6
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Luke1.6
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Post Contact Metres
494.6per game · league avg 544.2
#15 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At Go Media Stadium26.0(3)-1.3
Everywhere else27.3(110)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)17.7(3)-9.9
Dry games27.5(110)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs WAR · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
-3.5
Avg diff %
-14%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENLindsay Smith30.935+13%
08-07PENScott Sorensen27.635+27%
08-07PENLiam Martin29.719-36%
08-01GLDKlese Haas26.217-35%
08-01GLDChris Randall23.822-7%
08-01GLDKurtis Morrin24.14-83%
08-01GLDAJ Brimson26.929+8%
07-25CBYLachlan Galvin27.0270%
Similar = season average within ±4.2 of Luke's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry38.5