7.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 7.7 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 7.5
−0.4 opponent leak — they concede 175.7/game vs a 186.3 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 8.9 over 9 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 0 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o7.5
Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Lukevs all playersStatWAR concedePer game
72.5
44
Run Metresunfavorable
13
1543.0
Luke 72.5/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1690.9
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.6
56
Tackle Breaksneutral
81
34.4
Luke 1.6/game
WAR concedes 34.4/game · league avg 32.7
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
21.3
64
Tacklesneutral
94
365.4
Luke 21.3/game
WAR concedes 365.4/game · league avg 344.9
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
61
Triesunfavorable
6
2.9
Luke 0.2/game
WAR concedes 2.9/game · league avg 4.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
48
Try Assistsunfavorable
6
2.5
Luke 0.1/game
WAR concedes 2.5/game · league avg 3.5
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
63
Line Breaksneutral
44
4.7
Luke 0.3/game
WAR concedes 4.7/game · league avg 5.1
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
33
Offloadsneutral
63
10.2
Luke 0.2/game
WAR concedes 10.2/game · league avg 9.8
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
27.7
52
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
13
494.6
Luke 27.7/game
WAR concedes 494.6/game · league avg 545.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Luke72.5
44
WAR1543.0
13
Luke 72.5/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1690.9
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Luke1.6
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Runs
175.7per game · league avg 186.3
#17 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At Go Media Stadium7.3(3)-0.5
Everywhere else7.8(110)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)4.7(3)-3.3
Dry games7.9(110)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs WAR · Runs
Avg diff
-2.0
Avg diff %
-25%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENBilly Phillips6.73-55%
08-07PENLuron Patea6.86-11%
08-07PENBlaize Talagi9.10-100%
08-07PENScott Sorensen8.610+17%
08-01GLDChris Randall7.15-29%
08-01GLDZane Harrison7.513+73%
08-01GLDArama Hau6.74-40%
08-01GLDKurtis Morrin8.74-54%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Luke's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry12.5