• 26.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 26.6 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 27.5
• +1.6 opponent leak — they concede 365.4/game vs a 344.7 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 32.4 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 20: 48 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.