27.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 29.7 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 25.2
−2.5 opponent leak — they concede 494.6/game vs a 544.2 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 30.1 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ·opponent ▼projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o29.5
Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Liamvs all playersStatWAR concedePer game
84.8
52
Run Metresunfavorable
13
1543.0
Liam 84.8/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1686.6
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.9
64
Tackle Breaksneutral
81
34.4
Liam 1.9/game
WAR concedes 34.4/game · league avg 32.8
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
26.6
79
Tacklesfavorable
94
365.4
Liam 26.6/game
WAR concedes 365.4/game · league avg 344.9
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
85
Triesunfavorable
6
2.9
Liam 0.4/game
WAR concedes 2.9/game · league avg 4.2
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
53
Try Assistsunfavorable
6
2.5
Liam 0.1/game
WAR concedes 2.5/game · league avg 3.5
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
70
Line Breaksneutral
38
4.7
Liam 0.3/game
WAR concedes 4.7/game · league avg 5.1
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.0
86
Offloadsfavorable
69
10.2
Liam 1.0/game
WAR concedes 10.2/game · league avg 9.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
29.7
56
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
13
494.6
Liam 29.7/game
WAR concedes 494.6/game · league avg 544.2
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Liam84.8
52
WAR1543.0
13
Liam 84.8/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1686.6
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Liam1.9
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Post Contact Metres
494.6per game · league avg 544.2
#15 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At Go Media Stadium35.5(2)+1.8
Everywhere else33.7(120)
Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)33.6(7)-0.2
Dry games33.7(115)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs WAR · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+2.9
Avg diff %
+9%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENScott Sorensen27.635+27%
08-07PENLindsay Smith30.935+13%
08-01GLDAJ Brimson26.929+8%
08-01GLDKlese Haas26.217-35%
07-25CBYLachlan Galvin27.0270%
07-25CBYJaeman Salmon33.146+39%
07-18SGIMathew Feagai31.237+19%
07-18SGIDylan Egan31.331-1%
Similar = season average within ±4.5 of Liam's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry38.5