12.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 11.7 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 12.7
+0.3 opponent leak — they concede 190.9/game vs a 185.9 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 12.9 over 9 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 18: 24 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o11.5
Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 25 · 2026-08-20 19:50☁ 14.9°C☂ 0mm (32%)🌬 13.2 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Lindsayvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game
98.3
61
Run Metresneutral
50
1679.1
Lindsay 98.3/game
MEL concedes 1679.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.0
39
Tackle Breaksneutral
50
32.8
Lindsay 1.0/game
MEL concedes 32.8/game · league avg 32.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
30.0
84
Tacklesunfavorable
25
336.7
Lindsay 30.0/game
MEL concedes 336.7/game · league avg 344.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
51
Triesneutral
56
4.5
Lindsay 0.1/game
MEL concedes 4.5/game · league avg 4.2
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
39
Try Assistsneutral
63
3.6
Lindsay 0.1/game
MEL concedes 3.6/game · league avg 3.5
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
39
Line Breaksneutral
88
6.4
Lindsay 0.1/game
MEL concedes 6.4/game · league avg 5.1
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
68
Offloadsneutral
50
9.8
Lindsay 0.6/game
MEL concedes 9.8/game · league avg 9.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
30.9
58
Post Contact Metresneutral
69
563.0
Lindsay 30.9/game
MEL concedes 563.0/game · league avg 544.6
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Lindsay98.3
61
MEL1679.1
50
Lindsay 98.3/game
MEL concedes 1679.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Lindsay1.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MEL concede · Runs
190.9per game · league avg 185.9
#5 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Runs
At AAMI Park12.5(2)+0.8
Everywhere else11.7(101)
Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)12.7(6)+1.1
Dry games11.6(97)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs MEL · Runs
Avg diff
-0.3
Avg diff %
-3%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08MANNathan Brown11.814+19%
08-08MANCorey Waddell10.310-3%
07-31CBYJaeman Salmon10.19-10%
07-31CBYViliame Kikau10.513+24%
07-31CBYJethro Rinakama12.815+17%
07-31CBYMatt Burton13.114+7%
07-31CBYJacob Preston10.513+24%
07-31CBYJonathan Sua11.30-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.7 of Lindsay's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry12.5