• 101.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 98.3 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 106.7
• −10.1 opponent leak — they concede 1519.7/game vs a 1686.6 league average
• +2.9 at this ground — averages 104.5 there (21 gm)
• vs them: averages 126.9 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 18: 182 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.