• 10.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 11.1 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 10.6
• +0.3 opponent leak — they concede 190.9/game vs a 185.9 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 10.5 over 13 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.