19.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 19.8 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 18.9
−1.8 opponent leak — they concede 494.6/game vs a 544.2 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 19.0 over 5 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o19.5
Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Nathanvs all playersStatWAR concedePer game
100.2
62
Run Metresunfavorable
13
1543.0
Nathan 100.2/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1686.6
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.4
76
Tackle Breaksfavorable
81
34.4
Nathan 2.4/game
WAR concedes 34.4/game · league avg 32.8
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
20.1
62
Tacklesneutral
94
365.4
Nathan 20.1/game
WAR concedes 365.4/game · league avg 344.9
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
79
Triesunfavorable
6
2.9
Nathan 0.4/game
WAR concedes 2.9/game · league avg 4.2
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.4
100
Try Assistsunfavorable
6
2.5
Nathan 1.4/game
WAR concedes 2.5/game · league avg 3.5
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
93
Line Breaksneutral
38
4.7
Nathan 0.8/game
WAR concedes 4.7/game · league avg 5.1
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.1
90
Offloadsfavorable
69
10.2
Nathan 1.1/game
WAR concedes 10.2/game · league avg 9.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
19.8
37
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
13
494.6
Nathan 19.8/game
WAR concedes 494.6/game · league avg 544.2
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Nathan100.2
62
WAR1543.0
13
Nathan 100.2/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1686.6
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksfavorable
Nathan2.4
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Post Contact Metres
494.6per game · league avg 544.2
#15 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At Go Media Stadium12.0(2)-4.9
Everywhere else16.9(109)
Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)16.3(9)-0.5
Dry games16.8(102)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs WAR · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
-2.2
Avg diff %
-9%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENLuron Patea20.820-4%
08-07PENIzack Tago18.734+82%
08-07PENBlaize Talagi20.20-100%
08-07PENJaxen Edgar22.713-43%
08-01GLDArama Hau20.39-56%
08-01GLDJayden Campbell21.720-8%
08-01GLDJosh Patston16.919+12%
07-25CBYJosh Curran18.727+44%
Similar = season average within ±3.0 of Nathan's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry38.5