44.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 44.9 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 43.8
−4.2 opponent leak — they concede 494.6/game vs a 545.7 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 38.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o44.5
Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Caseyvs all playersStatWAR concedePer game
140.8
85
Run Metresunfavorable
13
1543.0
Casey 140.8/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1690.9
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.9
84
Tackle Breaksfavorable
81
34.4
Casey 2.9/game
WAR concedes 34.4/game · league avg 32.7
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
13.7
41
Tacklesneutral
94
365.4
Casey 13.7/game
WAR concedes 365.4/game · league avg 344.9
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
87
Triesunfavorable
6
2.9
Casey 0.5/game
WAR concedes 2.9/game · league avg 4.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
92
Try Assistsunfavorable
6
2.5
Casey 0.6/game
WAR concedes 2.5/game · league avg 3.5
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
85
Line Breaksneutral
44
4.7
Casey 0.5/game
WAR concedes 4.7/game · league avg 5.1
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
64
Offloadsneutral
63
10.2
Casey 0.5/game
WAR concedes 10.2/game · league avg 9.8
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
44.9
82
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
13
494.6
Casey 44.9/game
WAR concedes 494.6/game · league avg 545.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Casey140.8
85
WAR1543.0
13
Casey 140.8/game
WAR concedes 1543.0/game · league avg 1690.9
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksfavorable
Casey2.9
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Post Contact Metres
494.6per game · league avg 545.7
#15 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At Go Media Stadium29.5(2)-7.4
Everywhere else36.9(49)
Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)27.3(3)-9.8
Dry games37.1(48)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs WAR · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
-9.4
Avg diff %
-22%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENIsaah Yeo46.426-44%
08-07PENLiam Henry38.830-23%
08-07PENIsaiah Papali'i47.627-43%
08-07PENPaul Alamoti41.129-29%
08-01GLDJojo Fifita45.327-40%
08-01GLDKeano Kini46.159+28%
08-01GLDDean Ieremia44.252+18%
08-01GLDMoeaki Fotuaika40.124-40%
Similar = season average within ±6.7 of Casey's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry38.5