140.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 136.9 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 145.4
−0.7 opponent leak — they concede 1679.1/game vs a 1687.8 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 107.2 over 5 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o136.5
Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 25 · 2026-08-20 19:50☁ 14.9°C☂ 0mm (32%)🌬 13.2 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Paulvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game
136.9
84
Run Metresneutral
50
1679.1
Paul 136.9/game
MEL concedes 1679.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
4.1
94
Tackle Breaksneutral
50
32.8
Paul 4.1/game
MEL concedes 32.8/game · league avg 32.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
13.3
39
Tacklesunfavorable
25
336.7
Paul 13.3/game
MEL concedes 336.7/game · league avg 344.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
60
Triesneutral
56
4.5
Paul 0.2/game
MEL concedes 4.5/game · league avg 4.2
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
70
Try Assistsfavorable
63
3.6
Paul 0.2/game
MEL concedes 3.6/game · league avg 3.5
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
79
Line Breaksfavorable
88
6.4
Paul 0.5/game
MEL concedes 6.4/game · league avg 5.1
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.2
93
Offloadsneutral
50
9.8
Paul 1.2/game
MEL concedes 9.8/game · league avg 9.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
41.0
77
Post Contact Metresfavorable
69
563.0
Paul 41.0/game
MEL concedes 563.0/game · league avg 544.6
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Paul136.9
84
MEL1679.1
50
Paul 136.9/game
MEL concedes 1679.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Paul4.1
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MEL concede · Run Metres
1679.1per game · league avg 1687.8
#9 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Run Metres
At AAMI Park180.0(2)+52.5
Everywhere else127.5(77)
Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)154.0(5)+26.9
Dry games127.1(74)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs MEL · Run Metres
Avg diff
-5.2
Avg diff %
-3%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08MANJason Saab135.2103-24%
08-08MANTaniela Paseka130.374-43%
08-08MANReuben Garrick128.183-35%
07-31CBYLachlan Galvin117.6124+5%
07-31CBYMatt Burton126.1135+7%
07-31CBYJethro Rinakama121.9180+48%
07-31CBYEnari Tuala154.41540%
07-31CBYMax King125.2144+15%
Similar = season average within ±20.5 of Paul's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry119.5