3.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.4 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.0
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 181.3/game vs a 185.9 league average
−0.2 at this ground — averages 3.1 there (12 gm)
vs them: averages 1.0 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼venue ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o3.5
Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Samvs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
35.8
18
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Sam 35.8/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.3
46
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Sam 1.3/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
11.1
33
Tacklesneutral
100
368.1
Sam 11.1/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.9
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
44
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Sam 0.1/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
43
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Sam 0.1/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
57
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Sam 0.2/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
39
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Sam 0.2/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
10.8
21
Post Contact Metresneutral
56
548.9
Sam 10.8/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.2
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Sam35.8
18
PEN1576.6
25
Sam 35.8/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Sam1.3
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Runs
181.3per game · league avg 185.9
#12 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At Go Media Stadium3.1(12)-0.2
Everywhere else3.3(18)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)2.0(1)-1.2
Dry games3.2(29)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs PEN · Runs
Avg diff
-0.1
Avg diff %
+9%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARLuke Metcalf2.36+157%
08-07WARChanel Harris-Tavita4.82-59%
08-01CBRTom Starling4.44-9%
08-01CBROwen Pattie3.85+33%
08-01CBRMatty Nicholson3.35+50%
07-23PARHarrison Edwards3.53-15%
07-23PARToni Mataele4.10-100%
07-23PARTallyn Da Silva3.64+11%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Sam's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry12.5