12.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 11.5 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 13.1
−0.3 opponent leak — they concede 181.3/game vs a 185.9 league average
−3.1 at this ground — averages 9.1 there (14 gm)
vs them: averages 7.0 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▼venue ▼projection ▼
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o11.5
Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Tannervs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
108.9
68
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Tanner 108.9/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.8
61
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Tanner 1.8/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
21.4
65
Tacklesneutral
100
368.1
Tanner 21.4/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.9
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Tanner 0.0/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Tanner 0.0/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Tanner 0.0/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
26
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Tanner 0.1/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
40.5
76
Post Contact Metresneutral
56
548.9
Tanner 40.5/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.2
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Tanner108.9
68
PEN1576.6
25
Tanner 108.9/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Tanner1.8
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Runs
181.3per game · league avg 185.9
#12 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At Go Media Stadium9.1(14)-0.7
Everywhere else9.8(17)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)11.0(2)+1.7
Dry games9.3(29)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs PEN · Runs
Avg diff
-1.1
Avg diff %
-9%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARAlofiana Khan-Pereira11.811-7%
08-07WARAdam Pompey11.50-100%
08-07WARKurt Capewell9.810+2%
08-01CBRXavier Savage11.815+28%
08-01CBRSebastian Kris11.812+2%
08-01CBRZac Hosking11.513+13%
07-23PARJosh Addo-Carr12.311-11%
07-23PARKitione Kautoga12.212-2%
Similar = season average within ±1.7 of Tanner's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry12.5