• 33.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 31.5 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 35.7
• −2.2 opponent leak — they concede 322.1/game vs a 344.7 league average
• −1.7 at this ground — averages 31.5 there (12 gm)
• vs them: averages 32.3 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 13: 55 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.