17.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 17.8 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 17.8
−0.6 opponent leak — they concede 333/game vs a 344.9 league average
−2.4 at this ground — averages 15.4 there (28 gm)
vs them: averages 20.6 over 5 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ·opponent ▼venue ▼projection ▼
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 11: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o17.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Tanahvs all playersStatNQL concedePer game
64.0
37
Run Metresneutral
75
1785.8
Tanah 64.0/game
NQL concedes 1785.8/game · league avg 1686.6
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.3
47
Tackle Breaksneutral
94
36.5
Tanah 1.3/game
NQL concedes 36.5/game · league avg 32.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
17.8
54
Tacklesunfavorable
13
333.0
Tanah 17.8/game
NQL concedes 333.0/game · league avg 344.9
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
73
Triesfavorable
81
4.8
Tanah 0.3/game
NQL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.0
98
Try Assistsfavorable
88
4.1
Tanah 1.0/game
NQL concedes 4.1/game · league avg 3.5
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
67
Line Breaksneutral
81
6.0
Tanah 0.3/game
NQL concedes 6.0/game · league avg 5.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
34
Offloadsneutral
75
10.3
Tanah 0.2/game
NQL concedes 10.3/game · league avg 9.7
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
10.8
21
Post Contact Metresneutral
100
618.4
Tanah 10.8/game
NQL concedes 618.4/game · league avg 544.2
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Tanah64.0
37
NQL1785.8
75
Tanah 64.0/game
NQL concedes 1785.8/game · league avg 1686.6
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Tanah1.3
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NQL concede · Tackles
333.0per game · league avg 344.9
#15 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Tackles
At Cbus Super Stadium15.4(28)-0.5
Everywhere else15.9(60)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)18.7(7)+3.2
Dry games15.5(81)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs NQL · Tackles
Avg diff
-0.1
Avg diff %
0%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06GLDSam Verrills19.417-13%
08-06GLDAJ Brimson15.920+25%
08-06GLDJayden Campbell17.919+6%
08-06GLDJosh Patston18.541+122%
08-06GLDJojo Fifita17.210-42%
08-06GLDCooper Bai18.510-46%
07-30SYDHugo Savala15.714-11%
07-30SYDRobert Toia19.711-44%
Similar = season average within ±2.7 of Tanah's. Computed from this app's own records.