15.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 15.4 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 15.4
−0.4 opponent leak — they concede 181.3/game vs a 185.9 league average
+3.2 at this ground — averages 18.6 there (23 gm)
vs them: averages 13.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▼venue ▲projection ▲
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 12: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o15.5
Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Rogervs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
152.3
89
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Roger 152.3/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.3
75
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Roger 2.3/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
6.4
23
Tacklesneutral
100
368.1
Roger 6.4/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.9
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
60
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Roger 0.2/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
88
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Roger 0.5/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
82
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Roger 0.5/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
46
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Roger 0.3/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
52.5
91
Post Contact Metresneutral
56
548.9
Roger 52.5/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.2
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Roger152.3
89
PEN1576.6
25
Roger 152.3/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Roger2.3
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Runs
181.3per game · league avg 185.9
#12 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At Go Media Stadium18.6(23)-0.1
Everywhere else18.7(42)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)19.6(5)+1.0
Dry games18.6(60)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PEN · Runs
Avg diff
-0.9
Avg diff %
-5%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARTaine Tuaupiki15.70-100%
08-07WARJames Fisher-Harris16.518+9%
08-07WARMitchell Barnett16.116-1%
08-07WARErin Clark14.614-4%
08-07WARDallin Watene-Zelezniak15.715-5%
08-07WARCharnze Nicoll-Klokstad13.819+37%
08-01CBRKaeo Weekes14.218+26%
08-01CBRJoseph Tapine14.814-5%
Similar = season average within ±2.3 of Roger's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry12.5