97.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 95.3 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 99.8
−6.3 opponent leak — they concede 1576.6/game vs a 1686.6 league average
−13.0 at this ground — averages 84.1 there (37 gm)
vs them: averages 92.9 over 9 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▼venue ▼projection ▼
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o95.5
Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Adamvs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
95.3
59
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Adam 95.3/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.3
48
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Adam 1.3/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
10.5
32
Tacklesneutral
100
368.1
Adam 10.5/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.9
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
60
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Adam 0.2/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
77
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Adam 0.3/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
52
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Adam 0.2/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
64
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Adam 0.5/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
33.7
63
Post Contact Metresneutral
56
548.9
Adam 33.7/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.2
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Adam95.3
59
PEN1576.6
25
Adam 95.3/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Adam1.3
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Run Metres
1576.6per game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Run Metres
At Go Media Stadium84.1(37)-14.6
Everywhere else98.7(85)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)83.2(9)-12.0
Dry games95.2(113)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PEN · Run Metres
Avg diff
+21.9
Avg diff %
+25%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARAli Leiataua98.276-23%
08-07WARKurt Capewell87.0101+16%
08-07WARLeka Halasima87.7239+173%
08-07WARTanner Stowers-Smith108.91090%
08-01CBRZac Hosking96.2121+26%
08-01CBRAta Mariota90.481-10%
07-23PARKitione Kautoga104.797-7%
07-23PARKelma Tuilagi92.4117+27%
Similar = season average within ±14.3 of Adam's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry119.5