• 45.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 42.1 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 51.2
• +4.2 opponent leak — they concede 594.5/game vs a 544.2 league average
• −7.0 at this ground — averages 38.8 there (12 gm)
• vs them: averages 42.0 over 5 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 20: 86 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.