4.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.1 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.1
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 351.8/game vs a 344.7 league average
+1.6 at this ground — averages 5.7 there (39 gm)
vs them: averages 5.7 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 16: 12 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SOU concede · Tackles
351.8per game · league avg 344.7
#5 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackles
At Accor Stadium5.7(39)-1.3
Everywhere else7.0(55)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)4.9(8)-1.7
Dry games6.6(86)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SOU · Tackles
Avg diff
+0.3
Avg diff %
+1%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08PARJosh Addo-Carr5.57+28%
08-02CROWilliam Kennedy5.14-21%
08-02CRORonaldo Mulitalo4.76+28%
07-24MELSualauvi Faalogo4.77+50%
07-18CBRJed Stuart4.17+72%
07-18CBRKaeo Weekes3.52-42%
07-18CBRXavier Savage4.44-9%
07-18CBRSavelio Tamale2.60-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Jacob's. Computed from this app's own records.