• 52.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 49.1 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 58.5
• −5.2 opponent leak — they concede 1519.7/game vs a 1686.6 league average
• −0.4 at this ground — averages 52.5 there (4 gm)
• vs them: averages 59.3 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.