10.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 10.5 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 9.6
−0.3 opponent leak — they concede 180.6/game vs a 185.9 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 10.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 12: 0 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SYD concede · Runs
180.6per game · league avg 185.9
#15 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At Allianz Stadium12.0(3)+1.9
Everywhere else10.1(74)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)8.0(6)-2.3
Dry games10.3(71)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SYD · Runs
Avg diff
-4.4
Avg diff %
-42%
Hit rate
0/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07CBYBronson Xerri10.10-100%
08-07CBYStephen Crichton9.34-57%
08-07CBYJaeman Salmon10.17-30%
08-07CBYViliame Kikau10.59-14%
08-07CBYSitili Tupouniua11.73-74%
07-30NQLHeilum Luki10.87-35%
07-30NQLJeremiah Nanai10.310-2%
07-30NQLZac Laybutt10.48-23%
Similar = season average within ±1.6 of Jacob's. Computed from this app's own records.