3.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.8 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.5
−0.4 opponent leak — they concede 475.8/game vs a 545.7 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 1.8 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 20: 12 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SYD concede · Post Contact Metres
475.8per game · league avg 545.7
#16 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At Allianz Stadium2.0(3)-4.1
Everywhere else6.1(63)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)5.0(7)-1.0
Dry games6.0(59)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SYD · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+1.3
Avg diff %
+35%
Hit rate
6/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-30NQLKaiden Lahrs2.70-100%
07-30NQLSoni Luke3.47+107%
07-30NQLEthan King1.90-100%
07-24NEWPhoenix Crossland1.72+18%
07-11PARJonah Pezet3.15+59%
06-26BRIBen Hunt2.78+193%
06-26BRIBlake Mozer3.56+71%
06-26BRICory Paix3.85+32%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Bailey's. Computed from this app's own records.