14.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 14.0 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 15.1
−0.4 opponent leak — they concede 180.6/game vs a 186.3 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 12.3 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 11: 6 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SYD concede · Runs
180.6per game · league avg 186.3
#14 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At Allianz Stadium11.7(3)-1.0
Everywhere else12.7(102)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)12.0(10)-0.7
Dry games12.7(95)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SYD · Runs
Avg diff
-0.6
Avg diff %
-3%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07CBYEnari Tuala15.912-25%
08-07CBYJethro Rinakama12.817+33%
08-07CBYLeo Thompson13.513-3%
08-07CBYMatt Burton13.121+61%
08-07CBYLachlan Galvin13.916+15%
07-30NQLJaxon Purdue13.56-55%
07-30NQLThomas Mikaele12.510-20%
07-30NQLJason Taumalolo13.79-34%
Similar = season average within ±2.1 of Max's. Computed from this app's own records.