10.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 10.9 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 8.7
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 539.6/game vs a 544.2 league average
−0.3 at this ground — averages 9.8 there (4 gm)
vs them: averages 40.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼venue ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 12: 39 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o10.5
Game conditions4 Pines Park · SydneyRound 24 · 2026-08-14 18:00☁ 13.4°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 6.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Blakevs all playersStatDOL concedePer game
34.1
17
Run Metresunfavorable
38
1652.5
Blake 34.1/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1686.6
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
17
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
13
30.4
Blake 0.4/game
DOL concedes 30.4/game · league avg 32.8
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.3
2
Tacklesneutral
69
351.7
Blake 1.3/game
DOL concedes 351.7/game · league avg 344.9
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
67
Triesneutral
44
4.0
Blake 0.3/game
DOL concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
56
3.5
Blake 0.0/game
DOL concedes 3.5/game · league avg 3.5
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
75
Line Breaksneutral
50
4.8
Blake 0.4/game
DOL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 5.1
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsunfavorable
0
8.0
Blake 0.0/game
DOL concedes 8.0/game · league avg 9.7
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
10.9
21
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
44
539.6
Blake 10.9/game
DOL concedes 539.6/game · league avg 544.2
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Blake34.1
17
DOL1652.5
38
Blake 34.1/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1686.6
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Blake0.4
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
DOL concede · Post Contact Metres
539.6per game · league avg 544.2
#10 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At 4 Pines Park9.8(4)-17.4
Everywhere else27.1(38)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)31.0(3)+6.0
Dry games25.0(39)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs DOL · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
-2.3
Avg diff %
-21%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31SGIDaniel Atkinson11.60-100%
07-05NEWSandon Smith9.411+18%
06-27WARChanel Harris-Tavita9.913+31%
06-27WARSam Healey10.89-17%
06-20WSTJarome Luai12.113+8%
06-12SYDDaly Cherry-Evans9.53-68%
06-06NQLLiam Sutton10.016+60%
06-06NQLWiremu Greig10.50-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.6 of Blake's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown28.5