• 2.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.1 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.1
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 186.4/game vs a 185.9 league average
• −0.3 wet forecast — averages 1.8 in the wet (4 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.0 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.