• 95.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 110.5 (4 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 73.2
• −3.7 opponent leak — they concede 1625.6/game vs a 1690.9 league average
• −9.3 wet forecast — averages 86.3 in the wet (8 gm)
• vs them: averages 83.1 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.