• 36.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 36.3 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 36.7
• +0.3 opponent leak — they concede 347.8/game vs a 344.7 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• −3.6 wet forecast — averages 32.9 in the wet (9 gm)
• vs them: averages 35.1 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.