11.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 11.4 (21 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 12.5
−0.3 opponent leak — they concede 181.3/game vs a 185.9 league average
−0.6 at this ground — averages 11.3 there (56 gm)
vs them: averages 9.2 over 12 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o11.5
Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 25 · 2026-08-20 19:50☁ 14.9°C☂ 0mm (32%)🌬 13.2 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Joshvs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
97.7
60
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Josh 97.7/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
31
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Josh 0.8/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
31.8
88
Tacklesfavorable
100
368.1
Josh 31.8/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
38
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Josh 0.1/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Josh 0.0/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
38
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Josh 0.1/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
66
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Josh 0.6/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
35.7
67
Post Contact Metresneutral
50
548.9
Josh 35.7/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.6
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Josh97.7
60
PEN1576.6
25
Josh 97.7/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Josh0.8
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Runs
181.3per game · league avg 185.9
#12 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At AAMI Park11.3(56)+1.4
Everywhere else9.9(89)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)11.2(11)+0.8
Dry games10.4(134)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PEN · Runs
Avg diff
-1.3
Avg diff %
-12%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARAdam Pompey11.50-100%
08-07WARAlofiana Khan-Pereira11.811-7%
08-07WARTanner Stowers-Smith11.511-5%
08-07WARAli Leiataua9.87-28%
08-07WARKurt Capewell9.810+2%
08-01CBRXavier Savage11.915+26%
08-01CBRZac Hosking11.613+12%
08-01CBRSebastian Kris11.812+2%
Similar = season average within ±1.7 of Josh's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry12.5